Corn (ZC) – Knowledge
Contract specs • Seasonality • Planting & Harvest • COT • Reports • Production • Trading notes
1️⃣ Contract Specifications
| Exchange / Symbol | CBOT (CME Group) / ZC |
|---|---|
| Contract Size | 5,000 bushels (~127 metric tons) |
| Tick Size | 0.25¢ per bushel = $12.50 per tick |
| Point Value | $50.00 per 1¢ move |
| Contract Months | Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec |
| Settlement | Physical delivery (Chicago) |
| Margin (Indicative) | ~$1,650 initial / $1,500 maintenance (varies) |
| Trading Hours (U.S. / EU) | Globex (electronic): 8:00 – 14:20 CT → 15:00 – 21:20 CET (Winter) → 16:00 – 22:20 CEST (Summer) |
| Last Trading Day | Business day prior to 15th of contract month |
| Commission Example | $3 / side (AMP Futures) or CFD equivalent |
2️⃣ Seasonality Overview
Corn futures display strong seasonal behavior driven by the U.S. planting and harvest cycle. Historically, prices tend to bottom around late September / early October (post-harvest pressure) and rally into late spring (May–June) as weather and acreage reports tighten supply expectations.
- 📈 Bullish window: March – June
- 📉 Bearish window: September – November (harvest pressure)
- Consolidation: December – February
Seasonal source: 15-year average Corn (CBOT continuous).
3️⃣ Planting & Harvest Calendar
| Region | Planting | Harvest |
|---|---|---|
| USA (Corn Belt) | April – May | September – November |
| Brazil (Safra) | September – December | February – May |
| Brazil (Safrinha – 2nd Crop) | January – March | June – August |
| Argentina | September – December | March – May |
| EU (France, Romania) | April – May | September – October |
| China | April – May | September – October |
4️⃣ COT Insights
Commercial hedgers (grain elevators, exporters) tend to be net short, while managed money builds long positions during weather-driven rallies. COT extremes below 10 often mark exhaustion lows after heavy fund liquidation.
- COT Index > 90 → overbought / fund long extremes
- COT Index < 10 → oversold / potential reversal zone
- Funds often increase longs from Feb–May (weather rallies)
- Commercials add shorts ahead of harvest
Reference: CFTC “Corn – Chicago Board of Trade”.
5️⃣ Key Reports & Data Releases
| Report | Agency | Frequency / Timing |
|---|---|---|
| WASDE (World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates) | USDA | Monthly, ~10th–12th |
| Crop Progress | USDA | Weekly, Monday 22:00 CET |
| Export Sales | USDA | Weekly, Thursday 14:30 CET |
| Quarterly Grain Stocks | USDA / NASS | Quarterly, Mar / Jun / Sep / Dec |
| Acreage & Planting Intentions | USDA | Annual, late March |
| COT Report | CFTC | Weekly, Friday 21:30 CET |
| FOMC, CPI, NFP | Federal Reserve / BLS | Monthly |
6️⃣ Global Production & Supply
Corn is the largest traded grain globally and the backbone of feed and ethanol markets. Global annual output fluctuates around ~1.2 billion metric tons. The U.S., China, and Brazil dominate production, while Argentina and Ukraine are key exporters.
- Top producers: USA, China, Brazil, EU, Argentina, India, Mexico, Ukraine, South Africa, Canada
- Export leaders: USA, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine
- Main importers: China, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, EU
7️⃣ Production Costs (indicative)
| Region | Cost per ton | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| USA (Corn Belt) | $170 – $210 | High fertilizer & land cost |
| Brazil (Safrinha) | $130 – $160 | Lower inputs, high logistics cost |
| Argentina | $120 – $150 | Currency & export tax impact |
| EU (France, Romania) | €160 – €200 | Higher energy dependency |
8️⃣ Correlations & Proxies
- Highly correlated with Soybeans (ZS) and Wheat (ZW)
- Inverse correlation with USD Index (DXY)
- Energy link: Crude Oil (CL) via Ethanol demand
- ETF / CFD proxies: CORN (Teucrium ETF), Corn CFD (Pepperstone / ActivTrades)
9️⃣ Trading Notes / My Take
Corn offers deep liquidity, tight spreads, and reliable seasonality. Watch for major shifts in managed money positioning and USDA acreage updates. The strongest trading flows occur during the U.S. morning session (15:30–19:00 CET).
- Seasonal long bias March–June.
- Volatility spikes around USDA reports and weather updates.
- Beware of thin volume during holidays / rollover weeks.