Wheat (ZW) – Knowledge
Contract specs • Seasonality • Planting & Harvest • COT • Reports • Production • Trading notes
1️⃣ Contract Specifications
| Exchange / Symbol | CBOT (CME Group) / ZW |
|---|---|
| Contract Size | 5,000 bushels (~136 metric tons) |
| Tick Size | 0.25¢ per bushel = $12.50 per tick |
| Point Value | $50.00 per 1¢ move |
| Contract Months | Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec |
| Settlement | Physical delivery (Chicago area) |
| Margin (Indicative) | ~$1,800 initial / $1,700 maintenance (varies) |
| Trading Hours (U.S. / EU) |
Globex (electronic): → 8:00 – 14:20 CT |
| Last Trading Day | Business day prior to 15th of contract month |
| Commission Example | $3 / side (AMP Futures) or CFD equivalent |
2️⃣ Seasonality Overview
Historically, Wheat tends to build seasonal lows in late January–February as planting and weather concerns begin to dominate. Prices often rally into spring (Apr–May) before softening into harvest (Jun–Aug). Seasonal tendencies remain robust across 10- and 15-year averages.
- 📈 Bullish window: February – May
- 📉 Bearish window: June – August
- Neutral / consolidation: September – January
Seasonal source: 15-year average (CBOT Wheat continuous contract).
3️⃣ Planting & Harvest Calendar
| Region | Planting | Harvest |
|---|---|---|
| USA (Winter Wheat) | September – November | June – July |
| USA (Spring Wheat) | April – May | August – September |
| EU (France, Germany) | October – December | July – August |
| Russia / Ukraine | September – October | July – August |
| Australia | April – June | November – December |
4️⃣ COT Insights
Wheat’s COT structure typically shows commercial hedgers net short and managed money net long during bullish cycles. Commercials increase shorts when prices rise (hedging forward sales), while funds add longs during momentum phases.
- COT Index above 90 → potential overbought zone
- COT Index below 10 → potential capitulation lows
- Seasonal COT builds: January–February
- Liquidation phases: May–June (pre-harvest)
Reference: CFTC COT Report, “Chicago SRW Wheat”.
5️⃣ Key Reports & Data Releases
| Report | Agency | Frequency / Timing |
|---|---|---|
| WASDE (World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates) | USDA | Monthly, ~10th–12th |
| Crop Progress | USDA | Weekly, Monday 22:00 CET |
| Export Sales | USDA | Weekly, Thursday 14:30 CET |
| COT Report | CFTC | Weekly, Friday 21:30 CET |
| Weather & Drought Monitor | NOAA / CPC | Weekly |
| Macro Events | FOMC / NFP / CPI | Monthly |
6️⃣ Global Production & Supply
Wheat is one of the world’s three major grains alongside Corn and Rice. Global annual production fluctuates around ~790 million metric tons, driven mainly by weather and policy impacts across key producers.
- Top producers: China, India, Russia, USA, France, Canada, Pakistan, Germany, Turkey, Australia
- Major exporters: Russia, EU, USA, Canada, Australia
- Importers: Egypt, Indonesia, Turkey, Bangladesh
7️⃣ Production Costs (indicative)
| Region | Cost per ton | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| USA (Midwest) | $200 – $230 | High fertilizer & logistics cost |
| EU (France, Germany) | €180 – €220 | Energy & fertilizer sensitive |
| Russia / Ukraine | $140 – $170 | Lower input cost, higher risk |
| Australia | $190 – $210 | Rainfall-dependent |
8️⃣ Correlations & Proxies
- Related markets: Corn (ZC), Soybeans (ZS)
- Macro correlations: USD Index (DXY), Crude Oil (CL)
- ETF / CFD proxies: WEAT (Teucrium Wheat Fund), CFD Wheat (Pepperstone / ActivTrades)
9️⃣ Trading Notes / My Take
Wheat trading is most active during the US session (16:00 – 19:00 CEST). Liquidity is deep on front months (Mar–Jul) with moderate roll spreads. Seasonality remains one of the most reliable timing tools when combined with COT extremes and VWAP reversals.
- Prefer long setups Feb–May, short bias post-harvest.
- Avoid illiquid Dec contract (low volume).
- Monitor fund re-positioning after WASDE reports.