Trading Without COT: How to Stay Aligned During the U.S. Government Shutdown
When the U.S. government shuts down, CFTC and USDA reports pause — including the weekly COT report and the WASDE publication. Here’s how I adapt my commodity & futures trading when transparency temporarily disappears.
The Immediate Impact
- CFTC / COT: No weekly positioning report.
- USDA / WASDE: No supply-demand update, Crop Progress paused.
- Effect: Less transparency → potentially more uncertainty & volatility.
Adapting the Framework Without Fresh COT
- Use the last available COT as baseline. Positioning rarely flips in a week; assume continuity unless price structure breaks.
- Open Interest & Volume as a real-time proxy for participation. Rising OI + rising price = likely institutional demand.
- Seasonality windows remain valid (independent of the shutdown). Favor historical edges when reports are missing.
- VWAP & volume clusters for execution timing; they reveal where smart money is active, even without COT.
- Fundamental substitutes (exchange stocks, private research) can bridge short gaps in grains/softs/metals.
Mindset: Process Over Data
Consistency beats perfect information. No new COT? Use the last one. No WASDE? Trade technicals and seasonality. Focus on price reaction, not speculation. Markets don’t pause — they test who can trade without the crutch of data.
Example: Corn Futures (ZC)
- Last COT context: commercials increased longs, managed money reduced shorts.
- Seasonal bias: historically positive mid-Feb → late Apr.
- Structure: holding above key VWAP cluster (e.g., 409–420 c) — remains constructive while this area holds.
Note: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always check current conditions with your broker/platform.