Sugar Analysis October 2025
$ICEUS:SB1!
🔎 Market Situation
The latest COT report shows one of the most extreme positioning imbalances in 18 years for Sugar #11:
• Commercials: Net Long 128,130 contracts → 2nd highest since 2007 (only surpassed in Sep/Oct 2020 with ~160k).
• Non-Commercials (Funds): Net Short –125,628 contracts, almost a mirror image.
• COT Index: above 80% since July, peaking at 100% → continuous accumulation by Commercials.
• Open Interest: very high → massive market participation.
• On-Balance Volume (OBV): still negative → typical for final shakeouts before reversals.
📈 Historical Parallels
Looking back at the 5 biggest Commercial Long positions (2011, 2015, 2018, 2020, 2025):
2020: +55% rally within 3–6 months after record Commercial longs.
2015: +30% rally within 90 days.
Other cases: Average performance +10% (T+30), +21% (T+60), +31% (T+90).
👉 Every major COT extreme in Sugar was followed by a double-digit rally.
🟢 Trading Idea (Setup)
Bias: Bullish (expecting potential short squeeze / fund covering).
Entry Trigger: Breakout above key moving averages (e.g. 50-day SMA).
Stop: ATR-based or below recent swing lows.
🎯 Targets
TP1 = partial profit at +1.5R.
TP2 = trend-following → historically, rallies extended 20–30% within 2–3 months.
📅 Seasonality: Q4–Q1 tends to be bullish for Sugar (ethanol demand, Brazil harvest).
⚖️ Risk/Reward
Historical CRV of similar setups: 1:3 to 1:5.
Best rallies occurred when Commercials held positions >100k for several weeks while funds stayed heavily short.
📌 Conclusion
Sugar is showing one of the rarest COT setups of the past two decades.
Commercials are heavily long, funds massively short, and open interest is extreme.
The last time this happened (2020), Sugar rallied more than 50%.
📈 History suggests we could see another powerful move higher.
⚠️ Reminder: Next WASDE report → 09 Oct 2025